Contents  Introduction  ch.1  ch.2  ch.3  ch.4  ch.5  Conclusion  Literature  App.1  App.2 

2. Theories of innovative risks.

High level of hazard and low reliability of R&D financial forecasts are noted by many scientists. Each of them examined innovational risks in his or her own original way.  A. Dagaev defines three main types of innovational risks[vi]:

1.            Technical risk associated with insufficient technological expertise of a project.

2.            Commercial risk associated with uncertain behavior of a new product on the potential market.

3.            Ecological risk associated with unforeseen effects of the new product in the environment.   

Besides that, financial risk was defined as a universal type. It includes all the other types and is displayed in misfortunate performing of an innovational project.

Another famous researcher in the field of innovations theory, B. Twiss, analyzed quantitative effect of risks on income[vii]:

where I – real profitability of a project; B – planned profit; C – costs of a project; P_t – probability of technological success; P_c – probability of commercial success. Risk of a project is calculated as 1- P_t* P_с, even though probability of commercial success is evaluated in practice with great difficulties.

Attempts to define risk factors of innovational projects were made in the Russian economic literature as well. O. Korobeinikov and A. Trofilova point out the following reasons of a new product failure in the market[viii]:

1.                 Insufficient analysis of external environmental factors for the enterprise, market prospects and rivals behavior.

2.                 Insufficient analysis of internal innovational, production, financial and other opportunities.

3.                 Ineffective marketing and inadequate support of a new product during introduction in the market.

E. Mansfield laid stress on precision of estimates[ix]. According to his researches conducted in the British economy, industries’ actual expenses exceeded planned expenses in 0.97-1.5 times and actual periods of project realization exceeded planned periods in 1.39-3.04 times.

Regrettably researches only define risk factors not attempting to analyze their entity and the mechanism of their interaction.

We will try to remove this shortage and suggesting an alternative analysis of innovational risk factors system.

Contents  Introduction  ch.1  ch.2  ch.3  ch.4  ch.5  Conclusion  Literature  App.1  App.2